My favorite 538 post ever

[Tex]

Nate Silver is a pragmatic liberal. He acknowledges--screaming and kicking, perhaps, but acknowledges still--negative poll data and provides interesting analysis on it.

In that light, this post by him had me giggling (warning: language). Old dreams die hard, especially among the young. America is not a leftist country, Allah be praised.

A snippet:

After the New Year, there are a few more signs of trouble. A bunch of Democrats retire. Polls -- not just Rasmussen -- show Obama's approval below 50 percent. Then one shows that things are closer than expected in Massachusetts, where they're having an election to replace Ted Kennedy. A Republican can't possibly win the Kennedy seat, can he?

Yes. He. Can.

Oh, s***.

Which brings us to where we are today.

In other observations, 8 of his top 10 "most likely to change hands" 2010 Senate seats are held by Democrats, and he benchmarks the likely number of seats to be lost this November at around six (leaving a 53-47 split), with the caveat that it could get even worse.

Compare that to Feb '09, when his model predicted 8 of the top 10 were held by Republicans.

We can only hope the Dems continue to double-down and put their heads in the sand.