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Old 10-27-2008, 05:21 PM   #1
Tex
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Default Rasmussen showing a 3-point move toward McCain

... making the gap 5%. That's quite a jump for a poll that tends to show small movements day-to-day. To what do we attribute this?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...tch_up_history
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Old 10-27-2008, 06:31 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tex View Post
... making the gap 5%. That's quite a jump for a poll that tends to show small movements day-to-day. To what do we attribute this?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...tch_up_history
It is within the normal range of where Rasmussen has pegged the race for a while now. MoE.
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Old 10-27-2008, 06:36 PM   #3
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McCain often sees a slight bump on Mondays or Tuesdays. For some reason he polls better over the weekend. Bizarre.
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:09 PM   #4
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Gallup Traditional and Expanded both followed Rasmussen today, each moving 3% toward McCain.

Traditional gap is now 2% Obama; Expanded, 7%.
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:16 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon View Post
McCain often sees a slight bump on Mondays or Tuesdays. For some reason he polls better over the weekend. Bizarre.
More drunks on the weekend.
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:45 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tex View Post
Gallup Traditional and Expanded both followed Rasmussen today, each moving 3% toward McCain.

Traditional gap is now 2% Obama; Expanded, 7%.
You should probably bet on Intrade. McCain is cheap right now. I bet you will make a fortune.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:27 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tex View Post
... making the gap 5%. That's quite a jump for a poll that tends to show small movements day-to-day. To what do we attribute this?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...tch_up_history
random chance?
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Old 10-29-2008, 01:54 PM   #8
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random chance?
Doubtful. Rasmussen just made another 2 point move toward McCain.

Obama 50%
McCain 47%
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Old 10-29-2008, 01:58 PM   #9
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Doubtful. Rasmussen just made another 2 point move toward McCain.

Obama 50%
McCain 47%
Get back to me when a state poll in the following makes a significant shift. Then there is something to talk about:

Penn
VA
MI
WI
MN
CO
NV
OH
IN
MO
NM
FL
NC
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Old 10-29-2008, 01:59 PM   #10
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Leaving aside movements in the national polls, what about the all important array of battleground states?

The 538 guys seem to have a solid handle on accounting for poll variability, with an eye toward the states that really count. (For example, yesterday's projected electoral count for Obama was 355. A slight move toward McCain, but an enormous mountain for McCain to climb)

www.fivethirtyeight.com
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