Beware Statisticians Bearing Advice

[Tex]

One of the Scott Brown campaign watchers has an amusing post on his blog ... a series of snippets from posts by 538 statistician Nate Silver. Silver was the guy whose analysis the pro-Obama folks were relying a lot on for their 2008 cheer.

And to his credit, Silver did a very good job at predicting the final outcome. I wondered at the time how good he would do in a down year for Democrats, given that he's a dyed-in-the-wool liberal.

Since then, he's provided some interesting analysis, but still has that subtle bias. Multiple times I've seen him post negative data for something he likes--Obama, health care reform, global warming--and he always seems to find something nit-picky about the data to take some reassurance in. "It's not really as bad as it looks," seems to be his theme.

Well, he got slapped upside the head in Massachusettes in January, and in Maine last November (same-sex marriage initiative). Sort of amusing to see the fall-out.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

One of the Scott Brown campaign watchers has an amusing post on his blog ... a series of snippets from posts by 538 statistician Nate Silver. Silver was the guy whose analysis the pro-Obama folks were relying a lot on for their 2008 cheer.

And to his credit, Silver did a very good job at predicting the final outcome. I wondered at the time how good he would do in a down year for Democrats, given that he's a dyed-in-the-wool liberal.

Since then, he's provided some interesting analysis, but still has that subtle bias. Multiple times I've seen him post negative data for something he likes--Obama, health care reform, global warming--and he always seems to find something nit-picky about the data to take some reassurance in. "It's not really as bad as it looks," seems to be his theme.

Well, he got slapped upside the head in Massachusettes in January, and in Maine last November (same-sex marriage initiative). Sort of amusing to see the fall-out.

I'm not sure what smoking gun that guy thinks he found (or for that matter what you think he found). Silver does what all statisticians do- he looks at the available statistics. On the 5th (when he said Brown wasn't likely to be competitive), Brown was being crushed in the polls. When the data shifted, so too did Silver's analysis (which you would expect).
He called it a "toss up" as did Rasmussen (your favorite pollster).

What's the problem?

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I'm not sure what smoking gun that guy thinks he found (or for that matter what you think he found). Silver does what all statisticians do- he looks at the available statistics. On the 5th (when he said Brown wasn't likely to be competitive), Brown was being crushed in the polls. When the data shifted, so too did Silver's analysis (which you would expect).
He called it a "toss up" as did Rasmussen (your favorite pollster).

What's the problem?

Just having a little fun at Silver's expense. Lighten up.

[Tex]

Silver also seems obsessed with Sarah Palin, judging by his 2nd Palin post in row this morning.

Heh, I really don't understand why the Left is so captivated by Palin. It's hilarious. Did anyone catch Gibbs' press briefing yesterday? Talk about unprofessional ... the guy exudes some seriously funny unintentional humor.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

Silver also seems obsessed with Sarah Palin, judging by his 2nd Palin post in row this morning.

Heh, I really don't understand why the Left is so captivated by Palin. It's hilarious. Did anyone catch Gibbs' press briefing yesterday? Talk about unprofessional ... the guy exudes some seriously funny unintentional humor.

"Captivated?" One party certainly is captivated by her, but you may want to look to the one who might actually nominate her for president.

Palin's ascendency in the Republican party is about all the evidence you need that they have nothing to offer right now.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

"Captivated?" One party certainly is captivated by her, but you may want to look to the one who might actually nominate her for president.

No doubt she's popular among the Right. But that doesn't excuse the Left from their irrational Palin hysteria.

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Palin's ascendency in the Republican party is about all the evidence you need that they have nothing to offer right now.

*Yawn* Worry about your own fortunes, mate.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Tex

Silver also seems obsessed with Sarah Palin, judging by his 2nd Palin post in row this morning.

Heh, I really don't understand why the Left is so captivated by Palin. It's hilarious. Did anyone catch Gibbs' press briefing yesterday? Talk about unprofessional ... the guy exudes some seriously funny unintentional humor.

They wish to render certain positions non-credible and by having Palin speak on them, they believe she is Manna from Heaven in their effort to rid the world of conservative-moderate thought.