Huckabee leads Republican 2012 candidates

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Unless I'm crazy, you won't have to make that decision. The Republican guard won't let that disaster happen again.

My money is on Romney, but Huckabee isn't impossible.

Romney has a few really big problems. First, his support of healthcare reform in Mass (and any health care reform idea is a bad idea as far as the Republican right is concerned). What's more, his reform looked an awful lot like what the federal government is now proposing. Second, he still isn't popular with evangelicals and isn't likely to do better in the South than he did last time. Third, he blasted the auto industry in Michigan, which isn't going to carry a lot of favor there (despite his connections to Michigan). Fourth, the economy is likely to be doing much better in November 2012, so the one issue he is most prepared to speak on may not be the issue people vote on in 2012 (although if the economy isn't the issue, almost no Republican candidate will have a chance regardless).

Huckabee, on the other hand, was popular in the South in 2008. He overperformed in the early primaries, and is much more popular with the conservative base than Romney. His disdain of Romney is pretty well documented, and that seems to be a disdain shared by many of his supporters. He has said some pretty nutty things, but such statements (mostly religious) didn't bother Palin's supporters, and right now that group seems to be the group most motivated to go out and work for a grass roots campaign.

In short, the Republican party right now is dominated by tea partiers and evangelicals, neither of which are good groups for Romney and both of which are good for Huckabee. One name that isn't on that list who could do very well in a Republican party (which is mindblowing) is Governor Perry of Texas. Like I said, the party is a dumpster fire right now.

I think Romney has a decent chance, primarily because I don't know how long the tea partiers remain really motivated, and health care may not be a problem for Romney if it passes this year and stops being a major issue, but if the election were this year he wouldn't have a chance.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

My money is on Romney, but Huckabee isn't impossible.

Romney has a few really big problems. First, his support of healthcare reform in Mass (and any health care reform idea is a bad idea as far as the Republican right is concerned). What's more, his reform looked an awful lot like what the federal government is now proposing. Second, he still isn't popular with evangelicals and isn't likely to do better in the South than he did last time. Third, he blasted the auto industry in Michigan, which isn't going to carry a lot of favor there (despite his connections to Michigan). Fourth, the economy is likely to be doing much better in November 2012, so the one issue he is most prepared to speak on may not be the issue people vote on in 2012 (although if the economy isn't the issue, almost no Republican candidate will have a chance regardless).

Huckabee, on the other hand, was popular in the South in 2008. He overperformed in the early primaries, and is much more popular with the conservative base than Romney. His disdain of Romney is pretty well documented, and that seems to be a disdain shared by many of his supporters. He has said some pretty nutty things, but such statements (mostly religious) didn't bother Palin's supporters, and right now that group seems to be the group most motivated to go out and work for a grass roots campaign.

In short, the Republican party right now is dominated by tea partiers and evangelicals, neither of which are good groups for Romney and both of which are good for Huckabee. One name that isn't on that list who could do very well in a Republican party (which is mindblowing) is Governor Perry of Texas. Like I said, the party is a dumpster fire right now.

I think Romney has a decent chance, primarily because I don't know how long the tea partiers remain really motivated, and health care may not be a problem for Romney if it passes this year and stops being a major issue, but if the election were this year he wouldn't have a chance.

My bet is Romney or somebody we haven't considered just yet. I don't really believe the wonks who think Huckabee will destroy our party again.