10-25-2008, 01:33 AM | #1 |
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Very interesting NYT article
About Noriel Roubini, an economics professor at NYU. This article was written in August, and reading it now sends a few chills up my spine. I'd be curious to know what Pelagius thinks of Roubini. Did he just get lucky in the sense that a clock is always right twice a day? Or is he spot on? I'd assume it's somewhere in between.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/ma...ewanted=1&_r=1 Last edited by SteelBlue; 10-25-2008 at 01:39 AM. Reason: fixed link |
10-27-2008, 12:19 AM | #2 | |
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Roubini on the hedge fund crisis from a Thursday article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...OSc&refer=home Quote:
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10-27-2008, 01:32 AM | #3 | |
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Quote:
Still he got the essential mechanism right so you have to give him credit for that. However, even in 2006 there was plenty of talk of a housing bubble among economists. If one was inclined to make gloomy predictions a housing market crash made the most sense. Very few economists would have predicted the severity of the collapse (its without historical precedent), but lots of economist thought there was a housing bubble. Ownership costs/ rent ratios were at previously unseen levels. |
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10-27-2008, 01:37 AM | #4 | |
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Quote:
The second seems pretty unlikely but if it did that would sure make him into a first rate economic prophet. So it strikes me as well worth the cost of being wrong to predict a fairly unlikey event like that because if you turn out to be right you look very prescient and if your wrong your just another economist (we are wrong all the time). Last edited by pelagius; 10-27-2008 at 01:48 AM. |
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