11-04-2009, 02:20 PM | #21 | |
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It's an interesting statistic that in not a single place where gay marriage has been put to the vote of the people has it ever passed.
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11-04-2009, 03:05 PM | #22 | |
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11-04-2009, 05:09 PM | #23 | |
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I don't understand what you're getting at with your second sentence.
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11-04-2009, 05:22 PM | #24 |
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I still maintain that the next, large bruising NATIONAL debate about gay marriage will be the last -- and this would happen, I think, if Romney were the nominee.
Maine was important to the activists, but in the grand scheme of things, it's no indicator of a tide turner. The margin of victory would have been much larger just four years ago.
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11-04-2009, 06:30 PM | #25 | |
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Americans are (so far) universally voting down gay marriage. People on your side say stuff like the "margin is getting narrower" but there's no proof of that. The only tangible evidence of any kind of tide is a string of (now) 31 losses.
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11-04-2009, 06:56 PM | #26 | |
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11-04-2009, 07:47 PM | #27 |
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Support for gay marriage has gone up in every state, all 50, over the past ten years, with the fastest acceleration in the past 4 years.
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/m...arriage_a.html Do you think that gay marriage will not be adopted in this country on a universal basis?
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11-04-2009, 08:07 PM | #28 | |
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11-04-2009, 08:10 PM | #29 |
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You may be right, and there likely will be fits and starts here and there, but generally I don't think we can underestimate the concerted and persistent effort of the gay rights campaigners, nor the sensibilities of the rising generation.
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11-04-2009, 08:14 PM | #30 | |
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Look, I don't argue with the notion that homosexuality is becoming normalized among many Americans (much to my chagrin). But whether that means all those states will universally cross the 50% line in actually supporting gay marriage legislation (or translate said support to votes at the ballot box) is something else entirely. Over at 538 where Nate Silver pegged the likelihood of gay marriage to pass at 71% in Maine, he wonders if there's a "Bradley Effect" going on, undermining the polls. I don't know what the future holds, and maybe Americans will someday universally accept gay marriage, but legislative evidence of such a trend is a long way off. Even if the remaining 19 states ALL voted to recognize gay marriage today, you'd still have an extremely steep march up the rest of that hill. As it stands, the only states that offer gay marriage have done so via the legislature (which is legitimate, IMO) and judicial fiat (which is not). That doesn't bode well for the movement.
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