It's still Obama's to lose, but... - Page 3 - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

Tex · 08-21-2008, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

The electoral map, if you believe Karl, is shifting toward McCain right now, with McCain picking up eleven over a week ago. More significantly, the swing states are shifting toward McCain.

I also noticed the one state where Obama's behind by more than thirty. A full five points worse-off than any other state. sigh.

Out of curiosity ... in how many of those states is the leader over 50%?

BarbaraGordon · 08-21-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex

Out of curiosity ... in how many of those states is the leader over 50%?

That's a good Q. I don't know if he released his data or just the map.

BarbaraGordon · 08-21-2008, 02:53 PM

Looks like Rove didn't release his data.

If you want to look at somebody else's data,

538 has six states where neither candidate has a majority: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. Romney would snag half the states, minimum, for McCain.

Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are technically majorities, but by less than one point.

Tex · 08-21-2008, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Looks like Rove didn't release his data.

If you want to look at somebody else's data,

538 has six states where neither candidate has a majority: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. Romney would snag half the states, minimum, for McCain.

Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are technically majorities, but by less than one point.

I'm confused. I'm talking about states where the average polling data shows neither candidate north of 50%, not just ahead. Based on my reading of 538, several states fall in this category: AK, AZ, CO, FL, IA, IN, MI, MN, MO, MT, NC, ND, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, VA, WI, WV. DE shows Obama dead on at 50%.

So in a solid half of the states (not sure how many electoral votes that represents), neither candidate has crossed 50%.

BarbaraGordon · 08-21-2008, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex

I'm confused. I'm talking about states where the average polling data shows neither candidate north of 50%, not just ahead. Based on my reading of 538, several states fall in this category: AK, AZ, CO, FL, IA, IN, MI, MN, MO, MT, NC, ND, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, VA, WI, WV. DE shows Obama dead on at 50%.

So in a solid half of the states (not sure how many electoral votes that represents), neither candidate has crossed 50%.

I don't know where you're getting your data, Tex, but I think I understood your question and I already listed the six states for which, according to 538 projection, neither candidate has a majority of the popular response. The other 44 states all have a candidate with at least 50.1 percent. Is that not what you were asking?

Tex · 08-21-2008, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I don't know where you're getting your data, Tex, but I think I understood your question and I already listed the six states for which, according to 538 projection, neither candidate has a majority of the popular response. The other 44 states all have a candidate with at least 50.1 percent. Is that not what you were asking?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Scroll down on the right-hand side where it starts to list state polling ("Poll Detail") and look for the line labeled "Polling Average" for each state. That's the number I'm looking at.

Here's the link to the image. I won't include in the post, because it's monstrous.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3080/...776faf65_o.png

BarbaraGordon · 08-21-2008, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Scroll down on the right-hand side where it starts to list state polling ("Poll Detail") and look for the line labeled "Polling Average" for each state. That's the number I'm looking at.

Here's the link to the image. I won't include in the post, because it's monstrous.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3080/...776faf65_o.png

Thank you, Tex, I do know how to read data from a website.

Like I said, I used the 538 projection, not the pollsters' poll average.

myboynoah · 08-21-2008, 04:20 PM

FiveThirtyEight.com is a fascinating website. The data on each state on the righthand side confirms things are trending McCain's way right now. It will be interesting to see how much of a bump Obama can get out of the VP announcement and then the convention. If history holds true, not much, and then it evaporates rather quickly.

So, how many of you are on Obama's text message list for the VP announcement? Cali? BatGirl? Tex? Arch?

Tex · 08-21-2008, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Thank you, Tex, I do know how to read data from a website.

Like I said, I used the 538 projection, not the pollsters' poll average.

No need to get snarky, Barbara. You said you didn't know where I was getting my data, so I showed you.

Perhaps my original question was unclear. I'm more interested in the poll averages as they now stand, not the projections.

BarbaraGordon · 08-21-2008, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex

No need to get snarky, Barbara.

I'm always snarky. Word has it I'm morphing into catwoman.

08-21-2008, 04:20 PM	#28
myboynoah Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Memphis freakin' Tennessee!!!!! Posts: 4,530	FiveThirtyEight.com is a fascinating website. The data on each state on the righthand side confirms things are trending McCain's way right now. It will be interesting to see how much of a bump Obama can get out of the VP announcement and then the convention. If history holds true, not much, and then it evaporates rather quickly. So, how many of you are on Obama's text message list for the VP announcement? Cali? BatGirl? Tex? Arch? __________________ Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith.

08-21-2008, 02:53 PM	#23
BarbaraGordon Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Gotham City Posts: 7,157	Looks like Rove didn't release his data. If you want to look at somebody else's data, 538 has six states where neither candidate has a majority: Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. Romney would snag half the states, minimum, for McCain. Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are technically majorities, but by less than one point.