How will 20 states having their...

[DJRoss]

primaries/caucuses on the same day effect the momentum factor. This has never happened before, and I am not sure anyone really knows what to expect.

While Romney has lost the short term momentum, how does the media provide a clear path for McCain during Super Tuesday? It is almost impossible.

Worst case scenario Math for Romney on Super Tuesday:

"...Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 61 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 136.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday."

If Romney can make it to a brokered convention I believe his chances increase dramatically since Huckabee will be out the window and McCain will have a difficult time with the conservative convention delegates.