I am really alarmed about developments with Russia.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BlueK

I agree. Rather than being expanded, NATO should be disbanded. It's time for the Europeans to defend themselves. It's not like they can't afford it.

it's more likely that they will join pacts with Russia and join their evil empire.

then it will be us against the whole world.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

it's more likely that they will join pacts with Russia and join their evil empire.

then it will be us against the whole world.

Why? They like Russia better and NATO is the only thing that keeps them friendly to us? I don't think there is any economic incentive for Europe to turn against the US. Your fear of them aligning with Russia against us seems irrational to me. I don't see hundreds of thousands of Germans turning out to see a Russian politician speak to them and cheering wildly. Even if you don't like Obama, and I'm not a fan of his either, Europeans in general, other than the French, love America. But the French hate everyone, so that doesn't mean anything.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BlueK

Why? They like Russia better and NATO is the only thing that keeps them friendly to us? I don't think there is any economic incentive for Europe to turn against the US. Your fear of them aligning with Russia against us seems irrational to me.

after they invade the Ukraine, you don't think European countries won't be afraid? After they roll into Poland?

[Venkman]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

it's more likely that they will join pacts with Russia and join their evil empire.

then it will be us against the whole world.

The wisdom of expanding NATO or disbanding NATO is certainly debateable; that Europe needs to step up and begin to provide for it's own defense seems fairly obvious.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

after they invade the Ukraine, you don't think European countries won't be afraid? After they roll into Poland?

Having us be their national defense is part of the problem. We need to gradually pull out and allow Europe to take responsibility for their own defense. WW2 was a long time ago. If this happened, we would have to respond and the Europeans would want us to. But gradually we shouldn't be there to solve every military problem for them or we risk being drawn into stuff we really don't need to be. (Remember Bosnia?) I don't know how you could be against the war in Iraq but for American involvement in so many other places. It doesn't make sense to me.

[UtahDan]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I can't believe how little attention the crisis in Georgia is receiving here in the US. Russia is clearly ignoring international demands for withdrawal as they continue to capture more and more Georgian territory. Russia is also making strong statements with respect to Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine may be next on the invasion list. Ukraine controls a portion of the Black Sea, and Russia doesn't appear to like that fact. What happens if Russia's navy asserts Russian control over those waters?

And then there is this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080815/...issile_defense

Russia is making threats about invading Poland. Wow. What in the world would our response have to be to something like that? It would be tough to imagine anything other than a military response. Clearly we can't go back to a policy of appeasement, and we can't allow Russia to simply expand back to its Cold War borders.

Is Russia testing the waters for something like a return to its Cold War status? Dangerous times.

So much to comment on here. One thing that should be borne in mind is that Russian military and political culture has not changed that much. Putin is former KGB and all that cold war Russia understood was power, its maintenance and its exercise. You couldn't talk them into anything, you couldn't persuade, cajole, embarrass or appeal to morality. You simply had to meet strength with strength because if you didn't they perceived it as weakness and it emboldened them.

The cold war was such an easy time intellectually because there realism was staring you in the face. It wasn't about anything other than power, your ability to project it and the need to make Russia understand the consequences of misbehavior. No one wanted nuclear war and so things were so clear.

The fact remains, however, that power is still all Russia understands. Not surprisingly, it has correctly perceived that there is a power vacuum in Europe. None of the European nations were ever its equal militarily (hell, most European nations scarcely have a military) and only the UK and France have second strike capability (read here that after all the nukes have flown, the capability to surface in a submarine and take a shot at anything you missed the first time). While there was a time when the United States could oppose them on the continent, not only do we have our military totally committed to the Middle East, we no longer have the support of our former European friends.

Someone in Moscow has asked the question, what is the consequence of invading Georgia? Answer: none. There are few in the world who could offer opposition and they are unwilling or unable. Bye bye Georgia. Now will Russia really invade Ukraine or Poland? I think that is saber rattling, personally. Ukraine is possible, but one has to believe that were that to occur that we would immediately withdraw almost everyone from the middle east and begin to mass our troops on the Polish border. Europe would support us. The specter of tanks rolling into Warsaw is impermissible.

There would probably be vigorous debate as to whether we should aid Ukraine and in the end Ukraine would fall. Poland is a separate matter entirely. It is a member of NATO and Russia would have to perceive (and frankly ought to be reminded in the next 10 days) that invading Poland would trigger strikes against military targets within Russia and that nukes are not off the table. Poland would not be allowed to fall. Not even by President Obama.

In the end, I'm not even sure how far Russia will go with Georgia, but it could well be no more very soon, or at least be reduced to being a satellite. I very much doubt Russia goes further, but this is certainly a nice reminder both that our current military adventure is a luxury, as is the silly attitude that the international community can do anything to meet real threats in the world.

As an interesting side note, China and Russia are not traditional allies. I do wonder how the Chinese view this. They are another crew that understand only power and capability.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by UtahDan

So much to comment on here. One thing that should be borne in mind is that Russian military and political culture has not changed that much. Putin is former KGB and all that cold war Russia understood was power, its maintenance and its exercise. You couldn't talk them into anything, you couldn't persuade, cajole, embarrass or appeal to morality. You simply had to meet strength with strength because if you didn't they perceived it as weakness and it emboldened them.

The cold war was such an easy time intellectually because there realism was staring you in the face. It wasn't about anything other than power, your ability to project it and the need to make Russia understand the consequences of misbehavior. No one wanted nuclear war and so things were so clear.

The fact remains, however, that power is still all Russia understands. Not surprisingly, it has correctly perceived that there is a power vacuum in Europe. None of the European nations were ever its equal militarily (hell, most European nations scarcely have a military) and only the UK and France have second strike capability (read here that after all the nukes have flown, the capability to surface in a submarine and take a shot at anything you missed the first time). While there was a time when the United States could oppose them on the continent, not only do we have our military totally committed to the Middle East, we no longer have the support of our former European friends.

Someone in Moscow has asked the question, what is the consequence of invading Georgia? Answer: none. There are few in the world who could offer opposition and they are unwilling or unable. Bye bye Georgia. Now will Russia really invade Ukraine or Poland? I think that is saber rattling, personally. Ukraine is possible, but one has to believe that were that to occur that we would immediately withdraw almost everyone from the middle east and begin to mass our troops on the Polish border. Europe would support us. The specter of tanks rolling into Warsaw is impermissible.

There would probably be vigorous debate as to whether we should aid Ukraine and in the end Ukraine would fall. Poland is a separate matter entirely. It is a member of NATO and Russia would have to perceive (and frankly ought to be reminded in the next 10 days) that invading Poland would trigger strikes against military targets within Russia and that nukes are not off the table. Poland would not be allowed to fall. Not even by President Obama.

In the end, I'm not even sure how far Russia will go with Georgia, but it could well be no more very soon, or at least be reduced to being a satellite. I very much doubt Russia goes further, but this is certainly a nice reminder both that our current military adventure is a luxury, as is the silly attitude that the international community can do anything to meet real threats in the world.

As an interesting side note, China and Russia are not traditional allies. I do wonder how the Chinese view this. They are another crew that understand only power and capability.

well put.

[MikeWaters]

I'm sure this is comforting to Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, et al. That when the bombs fall, and tanks roll in, and children are dead in the streets, we will be whistling, and talking about the dangers of a certain man in headdress hiding in a cave in Pakistan.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I'm sure this is comforting to Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, et al. That when the bombs fall, and tanks roll in, and children are dead in the streets, we will be whistling, and talking about the dangers of a certain man in headdress hiding in a cave in Pakistan.

You really think Russia is going to start an all out war on all those fronts?

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BlueK

You really think Russia is going to start an all out war on all those fronts?

one at a time. over fake provocations. Like the Gulf of Tonkin.