10-22-2012, 04:14 PM | #11 |
I must not tell lies
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UPDATE
Two weeks left. Obama's probability of winning is up 1.6 from a week ago to 67.6%. Although most say that he narrowly "won" the second debate, he not receive nearly the same bounce as Romney the week before. The electoral forecast is 288 Obama, 250 Romney, an Obama -1 from last week. The only change in the swing states is North Carolina is now likely Romney. Pennsylvania has suddenly been added as the tenth swing state, and debuts as likely Obama. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Lastly, whomever "wins" tonight's debate will likely again be whomever has waxed so cold at telling lies that it is better presented as his second nature. See this fact-check analysis of the second debate from the Annenberg Public Policy Center: http://factcheck.org/2012/10/factche...ofstra-debate/ |
10-22-2012, 04:19 PM | #12 |
Demiurge
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I'm not sure a foreign policy debate matters much, other than style and perception of leadership.
For example, I don't think the Libya colossal F-up matters much to Americans (sadly). Obama can lie through his teeth and that's gonna work. |
10-22-2012, 06:03 PM | #13 | |
I must not tell lies
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Quote:
Agreed again. |
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10-29-2012, 02:52 PM | #14 |
I must not tell lies
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UPDATE
One week left, and there was an upswing for Obama since last Monday. Presently his probability of winning is 74.6% (+7.0), with 297 electoral votes (+9). A natural disaster is headed towards the East Coast. Certainly Romney's focus group is working overtime to determine the best way to criticize how Obama handles the crisis, and especially to howl over the emergency funding. They need to take a delicate approach though, considering North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire are swing states. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ |
10-31-2012, 01:06 AM | #15 |
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Uninstalling Obama......... ███████████████▒ 97% complete.
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11-04-2012, 12:04 AM | #16 |
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Romney has to win all the states solidly and leaning towards him now, plus Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.
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11-05-2012, 04:55 PM | #17 |
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Silver is essentially calling it for Obama. At 86% in his model.
I hope he eats crow. |
11-05-2012, 06:40 PM | #18 |
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Nate Silver does tend to lean left. If we look elsewhere, such as to Wall Street and Las Vegas where they use trading/gambling instead of polling, Obama is presently a 66.8% favorite on Intrade and at 80% on betfair.
Some right wingers call Obama the worst president since Hoover. If that's so, you'd think they could have come up with a candidate worth voting for, but they best they found was Captain Etch-a-sketch. |
11-05-2012, 06:53 PM | #19 | |
I must not tell lies
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Allegedly, 81% of the world hopes that Obama wins. Of the 36 nations polled, only China favored Romney.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-election.html Quote:
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11-05-2012, 06:57 PM | #20 |
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those people are stupid. They think Michael Jackson is awesome.
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