I know people like BYU71 think there will be no recession

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

much less a more significant dowturn, but everything I see points to bad, bad, bad.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/op...54b&ei=5087%0A

Weak dollar is killing us. Absolutely killing us. It is driving up the price of oil. Our lack of savings--read the article.

Imagine if we have a bad crop cycle next year, due to global warming, or el nino, or just plain bad luck.

Absolutely disaster. Imagine if avian flu jumps. Worldwide economic collapse as goods don't travel from the West to the East.

I hope BYU71 is right, but man, you would be a fool not to plan for a significant downturn coming up in the near future.

But I know most of you consider me an idiot, a chicken little. That's fine. I'll do what I think is right.

I don't think I have said there isn't going to be a recession. Actually everything points toward things getting pretty nasty. I do believe this is an oil bubble, but as I have said many times before, bubbles can go well beyond the price where a bubble is. The internet bubble and real estate bubble are the last two that come to mind.

The only reason I have some optimism left is because everyone is so dang negative and yet the economy hasn't dipped into a recession (definition of recession) yet. I don't know why we haven't yet.