An interesting post on why the bailout vote failed... - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

Cali Coug · 09-30-2008, 02:04 AM

From fivethirtyeight.com:

This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.

By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.

A complete breakdown follows below the fold.

REPUBLICANS
AK-AL Young R NAY
CO-4 Musgrave R NAY
CT-4 Shays R YEA
FL-8 Keller R NAY
FL-21 L Diaz-Balart R NAY
FL-24 Feeney R NAY
FL-25 M Diaz-Balart R NAY
ID-1 Sali R NAY
IL-10 Kirk R YEA
MI-7 Walberg R NAY
MI-9 Knollenberg R NAY
MO-6 Graves R NAY
NC-8 Hayes R NAY
NV-3 Porter R YEA
NY-29 Kuhl R NAY
OH-1 Chabot R NAY
OH-2 Schmidt R NAY
PA-3 English R NAY
VA-2 Drake R NAY
WA-8 Reichert R NAY
VULNERABLE GOP = 3 YEAS, 17 NAYS (15%)
OTHER GOP = 62 YEAS, 116 NAYS (35%)

DEMOCRATS
AZ-5 Mitchell D NAY
AZ-8 Giffords D NAY
CA-11 McNerney D YEA
FL-16 Mahoney D YEA
GA-8 Marshall D YEA
IL-14 Foster D YEA
IN-9 Hill D NAY
KS-2 Boyda D NAY
KY-3 Yarmuth D NAY
LA-6 Cazayoux D NAY
MS-1 Childers D NAY
NH-1 Shea-Porter D NAY
NY-20 Gillibrand D NAY
PA-4 Altmire D NAY
PA-10 Carney D NAY
PA-11 Kanjorski D YEA
TX-22 Lampson D NAY
WI-8 Kagen D NAY
VULNERABLE DEMS = 5 YEAS, 13 NAYS (28%)
OTHER DEMS = 135 YEAS, 82 NAYS (62%)

ALL VULNERABLES = 8 YEAS, 30 NAYS (21%)
OTHERS = 197 YEAS, 198 NAYS (50%)

UPDATE: A helpful reader named Matt Glassman passed along the fact that, among 26 congressmen NOT running for re-election (almost all of whom are Republicans), 23 voted in favor of the bill, as opposed to 2 against and one abstaining.

EDIT (4:24 PM): The count above may not be exact -- Eve Fairbanks finds 4 retiring Republicans who voted against the bill -- but the general point should stand.

09-30-2008, 02:04 AM	#1
Cali Coug Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,996	An interesting post on why the bailout vote failed... From fivethirtyeight.com: This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races. Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211. By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against. A complete breakdown follows below the fold. REPUBLICANS AK-AL Young R NAY CO-4 Musgrave R NAY CT-4 Shays R YEA FL-8 Keller R NAY FL-21 L Diaz-Balart R NAY FL-24 Feeney R NAY FL-25 M Diaz-Balart R NAY ID-1 Sali R NAY IL-10 Kirk R YEA MI-7 Walberg R NAY MI-9 Knollenberg R NAY MO-6 Graves R NAY NC-8 Hayes R NAY NV-3 Porter R YEA NY-29 Kuhl R NAY OH-1 Chabot R NAY OH-2 Schmidt R NAY PA-3 English R NAY VA-2 Drake R NAY WA-8 Reichert R NAY VULNERABLE GOP = 3 YEAS, 17 NAYS (15%) OTHER GOP = 62 YEAS, 116 NAYS (35%) DEMOCRATS AZ-5 Mitchell D NAY AZ-8 Giffords D NAY CA-11 McNerney D YEA FL-16 Mahoney D YEA GA-8 Marshall D YEA IL-14 Foster D YEA IN-9 Hill D NAY KS-2 Boyda D NAY KY-3 Yarmuth D NAY LA-6 Cazayoux D NAY MS-1 Childers D NAY NH-1 Shea-Porter D NAY NY-20 Gillibrand D NAY PA-4 Altmire D NAY PA-10 Carney D NAY PA-11 Kanjorski D YEA TX-22 Lampson D NAY WI-8 Kagen D NAY VULNERABLE DEMS = 5 YEAS, 13 NAYS (28%) OTHER DEMS = 135 YEAS, 82 NAYS (62%) ALL VULNERABLES = 8 YEAS, 30 NAYS (21%) OTHERS = 197 YEAS, 198 NAYS (50%) UPDATE: A helpful reader named Matt Glassman passed along the fact that, among 26 congressmen NOT running for re-election (almost all of whom are Republicans), 23 voted in favor of the bill, as opposed to 2 against and one abstaining. EDIT (4:24 PM): The count above may not be exact -- Eve Fairbanks finds 4 retiring Republicans who voted against the bill -- but the general point should stand.