Hoopla aside

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Cali, Ma'ake, Adam, Sooner have been strangely muted. I bet they're in shock. This thing has been going per script for the Republicans.

Nah, just been busy. Sure, it would have been nice for Obama to slam the door on her on the 4th. It didn't happen, but I don't know that anyone really expected it to happen. She was supposed to win Texas and Ohio. Obama made a game out of Texas (and apparently won more delegates there than Clinton) and lost Ohio by more than what recent polls indicated.

From what I understand, Puerto Rico is now the biggest remaining contest. Sure, Pennsylvania has more delegates, but they will be split fairly evenly, even if Clinton takes a bit more than Obama.

Puerto Rico has 63 delegates, and from my marginal research, it appears it is a winner take all contest. That immediately makes it far and away the biggest get any candidate has left. It is the last primary, and I read that Dean was working to convince them to go with the standard proportional system but to no luck so far. If true, and if Obama can win PR, he could seal up the nomination then (ironic, given the total lack of importance of PR in any election ever here).

The critical thing for the Dems will be ensuring that this isn't decided in the convention or, alternatively, that it is decided there but Obama and Clinton are on the same ticket. Otherwise, half the party will walk out feeling robbed. I don't think the Dems will let themselves fall apart like that, and I think steps towards redoing the primaries in Florida and Michigan are a good first step towards ensuring the party doesn't implode.

Obama's chances look very good right now. He is almost assured of having the lead at the end of the primary process, both in the popular vote and total delegates pledged. He is securing the votes of super delegates at a rapid pace right now and continues to out-fundraise Clinton (by $25 million last month alone). He has a much broader voting base and donor base than Clinton does so far. He should be the nominee, and I fully expect he will be. It will go longer than the Dems would have liked, but even that could be a net positive for the party as they establish a solid machine in Pennsylvania and other states that will serve them well in the general election.