Huckabee leads Republican 2012 candidates

[Tex]

According to Rasmussen, Republicans prefer the following as their 2012 candidates:

Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 14%
Pawlenty 4%
Other 6%
Undecided 7%

Thank goodness we have a few years to shake this out. Huckabee at the top of the ticket would be a disaster.

Another interesting number is current Republican optimism: 81% say it's at least somewhat likely Obama will lose in '12, with 50% saying "very" likely. That doesn't tell us anything about the '12 race, but it tells us how optimistic Republicans are feeling right now. Let the good times roll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ey_24_palin_18

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Tex

According to Rasmussen, Republicans prefer the following as their 2012 candidates:

Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 14%
Pawlenty 4%
Other 6%
Undecided 7%

Thank goodness we have a few years to shake this out. Huckabee at the top of the ticket would be a disaster.

Another interesting number is current Republican optimism: 81% say it's at least somewhat likely Obama will lose in '12, with 50% saying "very" likely. That doesn't tell us anything about the '12 race, but it tells us how optimistic Republicans are feeling right now. Let the good times roll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ey_24_palin_18

I want no part of the Republican Party if Huckabee is at the top of the ticket. Thank you no.

[Levin]

Originally Posted by Tex

Another interesting number is current Republican optimism: 81% say it's at least somewhat likely Obama will lose in '12, with 50% saying "very" likely. That doesn't tell us anything about the '12 race, but it tells us how optimistic Republicans are feeling right now. Let the good times roll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ey_24_palin_18

LOL! I guarantee right here right now that Obama will win reelection in 2012. Not a single name on that list stands a chance against Obama.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Levin

LOL! I guarantee right here right now that Obama will win reelection in 2012. Not a single name on that list stands a chance against Obama.

I'm moving to Morocco rather suffer than indignity.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Levin

LOL! I guarantee right here right now that Obama will win reelection in 2012. Not a single name on that list stands a chance against Obama.

Heh, I think that's a pretty silly "guarantee" but as I said, the information isn't really useful for 2012. It's interesting in what it says about the Republican party right now.

[MikeWaters]

I will not vote for Huckabee period. Or Palin.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I will not vote for Huckabee period. Or Palin.

Unless I'm crazy, you won't have to make that decision. The Republican guard won't let that disaster happen again.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Unless I'm crazy, you won't have to make that decision. The Republican guard won't let that disaster happen again.

My money is on Romney, but Huckabee isn't impossible.

Romney has a few really big problems. First, his support of healthcare reform in Mass (and any health care reform idea is a bad idea as far as the Republican right is concerned). What's more, his reform looked an awful lot like what the federal government is now proposing. Second, he still isn't popular with evangelicals and isn't likely to do better in the South than he did last time. Third, he blasted the auto industry in Michigan, which isn't going to carry a lot of favor there (despite his connections to Michigan). Fourth, the economy is likely to be doing much better in November 2012, so the one issue he is most prepared to speak on may not be the issue people vote on in 2012 (although if the economy isn't the issue, almost no Republican candidate will have a chance regardless).

Huckabee, on the other hand, was popular in the South in 2008. He overperformed in the early primaries, and is much more popular with the conservative base than Romney. His disdain of Romney is pretty well documented, and that seems to be a disdain shared by many of his supporters. He has said some pretty nutty things, but such statements (mostly religious) didn't bother Palin's supporters, and right now that group seems to be the group most motivated to go out and work for a grass roots campaign.

In short, the Republican party right now is dominated by tea partiers and evangelicals, neither of which are good groups for Romney and both of which are good for Huckabee. One name that isn't on that list who could do very well in a Republican party (which is mindblowing) is Governor Perry of Texas. Like I said, the party is a dumpster fire right now.

I think Romney has a decent chance, primarily because I don't know how long the tea partiers remain really motivated, and health care may not be a problem for Romney if it passes this year and stops being a major issue, but if the election were this year he wouldn't have a chance.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

My money is on Romney, but Huckabee isn't impossible.

Romney has a few really big problems. First, his support of healthcare reform in Mass (and any health care reform idea is a bad idea as far as the Republican right is concerned). What's more, his reform looked an awful lot like what the federal government is now proposing. Second, he still isn't popular with evangelicals and isn't likely to do better in the South than he did last time. Third, he blasted the auto industry in Michigan, which isn't going to carry a lot of favor there (despite his connections to Michigan). Fourth, the economy is likely to be doing much better in November 2012, so the one issue he is most prepared to speak on may not be the issue people vote on in 2012 (although if the economy isn't the issue, almost no Republican candidate will have a chance regardless).

Huckabee, on the other hand, was popular in the South in 2008. He overperformed in the early primaries, and is much more popular with the conservative base than Romney. His disdain of Romney is pretty well documented, and that seems to be a disdain shared by many of his supporters. He has said some pretty nutty things, but such statements (mostly religious) didn't bother Palin's supporters, and right now that group seems to be the group most motivated to go out and work for a grass roots campaign.

In short, the Republican party right now is dominated by tea partiers and evangelicals, neither of which are good groups for Romney and both of which are good for Huckabee. One name that isn't on that list who could do very well in a Republican party (which is mindblowing) is Governor Perry of Texas. Like I said, the party is a dumpster fire right now.

I think Romney has a decent chance, primarily because I don't know how long the tea partiers remain really motivated, and health care may not be a problem for Romney if it passes this year and stops being a major issue, but if the election were this year he wouldn't have a chance.

My bet is Romney or somebody we haven't considered just yet. I don't really believe the wonks who think Huckabee will destroy our party again.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

According to Rasmussen, Republicans prefer the following as their 2012 candidates:

Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 14%
Pawlenty 4%
Other 6%
Undecided 7%

Thank goodness we have a few years to shake this out. Huckabee at the top of the ticket would be a disaster.

Another interesting number is current Republican optimism: 81% say it's at least somewhat likely Obama will lose in '12, with 50% saying "very" likely. That doesn't tell us anything about the '12 race, but it tells us how optimistic Republicans are feeling right now. Let the good times roll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ey_24_palin_18

Haha! I love those options. What a dumpster fire the Republican Party has turned into. Those picks show how directionless the party is right now. Huckabee at number 1 has absolutely nothing in common with Romney at No. 2. In fact, the two hate each other. Sarah Palin, the most embarrassing VP candidate for a major party in decades, comes in at No. 3. She leads the "mavericky" portion of the party. Gingrich at No. 4, despite the fact that he despises picks 1-3 and has openly endorsed pick No. 5 (Pawlenty). Pawlenty up next, even though he only won reelection by 1 point in 2006 and could very well lose in 2010 (which would be a bad start to his 2012 campaign).

Democrats would love any of those options. Honestly. Thank you again, Tex. You always brighten my day.