We don't need no education.

[ERCougar]

From http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/03/news...ion=2008030405

"The federal budget has averaged about 18% of GDP over the past several decades. If that average holds and if the rules of our social insurance programs don't change, then by 2070, when today's kids are retiring, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will consume the entire federal budget, with Medicare taking by far the largest share. No Army, no Navy, no Education Department - just those three programs."

So....let's expand Medicaid. Makes sense, Barrack.

[ERCougar]

Originally Posted by ERCougar

From http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/03/news...ion=2008030405

"The federal budget has averaged about 18% of GDP over the past several decades. If that average holds and if the rules of our social insurance programs don't change, then by 2070, when today's kids are retiring, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will consume the entire federal budget, with Medicare taking by far the largest share. No Army, no Navy, no Education Department - just those three programs."

So....let's expand Medicaid. Makes sense, Barrack.

I'm bumping this because I'm interested in hearing Cali/Chino's answer to this.

[ChinoCoug]

Originally Posted by ERCougar

From http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/03/news...ion=2008030405

"The federal budget has averaged about 18% of GDP over the past several decades. If that average holds and if the rules of our social insurance programs don't change, then by 2070, when today's kids are retiring, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will consume the entire federal budget, with Medicare taking by far the largest share. No Army, no Navy, no Education Department - just those three programs."

So....let's expand Medicaid. Makes sense, Barrack.

good question. the budget is 18% of GDP. But GDP/person increases at an average of 2% a year. By 2070, GDP/person will be six times higher than it is now. 18% will be a lot more in absolute terms. Each worker will be able to support twice as many retirees as right now. Hence I'm not worried.

[ChinoCoug]

here's a good article:

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...4396_db084.htm

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by ChinoCoug

By 2070, GDP/person will be six times higher than it is now.

Would you care to show the source of this extrapolation?

[ChinoCoug]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

Would you care to show the source of this extrapolation?

it's in the article

Here's the math: Productivity growth for the whole economy has run at a rate of 2.3% or so annually since the mid-1990s (based on calculations by the Social Security Administration). Suppose the U.S. can maintain this rate for the next 75 years. The result would be an almost sixfold increase in output per worker. With each worker in 2080 producing six times more than a worker today, plenty would still be left over even if each worker had to support twice as many older Americans.

[ChinoCoug]

Here is a hand calculation on Excel:

2008 1
2009 1.023
2010 1.046529
2011 1.070599167
2012 1.095222948
2013 1.120413076
2014 1.146182576
2015 1.172544776
2017 1.227102112
2018 1.25532546
2019 1.284197946
2020 1.313734498
2021 1.343950392
2022 1.374861251
2023 1.40648306
2024 1.43883217
2025 1.47192531
2026 1.505779592
2027 1.540412523
2028 1.575842011
2029 1.612086377
2030 1.649164364
2031 1.687095144
2032 1.725898332
2033 1.765593994
2034 1.806202656
2035 1.847745317
2036 1.890243459
2037 1.933719059
2038 1.978194597
2039 2.023693073
2040 2.070238013
2041 2.117853488
2042 2.166564118
2043 2.216395093
2044 2.26737218
2045 2.31952174
2046 2.37287074
2047 2.427446767
2048 2.483278043
2049 2.540393438
2050 2.598822487
2051 2.658595404
2052 2.719743098
2053 2.782297189
2054 2.846290025
2055 2.911754695
2056 2.978725053
2057 3.04723573
2058 3.117322151
2059 3.189020561
2060 3.262368034
2061 3.337402499
2062 3.414162756
2063 3.492688499
2064 3.573020335
2065 3.655199803
2066 3.739269398
2067 3.825272594
2068 3.913253864
2069 4.003258703
2070 4.095333653
2071 4.189526327
2072 4.285885432
2073 4.384460797
2074 4.485303396
2075 4.588465374
2076 4.694000077
2077 4.801962079
2078 4.912407207
2079 5.025392573
2080 5.140976602

I can't remember the growth accounting equation but productivity growth should roughly equal real gdp/person growth.

[Lost Student]

Originally Posted by ChinoCoug

Here is a hand calculation on Excel:

I can't remember the growth accounting equation but productivity growth should roughly equal real gdp/person growth.

(1 + i)^n

[ChinoCoug]

Originally Posted by Lost Student

(1 + i)^n

no, that's compound interest.

it's this:
At = Yt/(Kt^αNt^(1−α))

http://www.econ.ucla.edu/doepke/teaching/c32/sec1.pdf

[All-American]

Chino, last time I checked, 5.8 was not the same as 6.

You lying bastard.