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09-27-2012, 12:45 AM | #1 | |
I must not tell lies
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NY Times: as of 9/24, Obama has an 81.9% probability of winning
17 of the past 18 candidates who lead in the polls with 45 days remaining, won the election. The lone loss was Dewey to Truman.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.../?ref=politics Quote:
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10-01-2012, 04:13 PM | #2 |
I must not tell lies
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Update: now with five weeks to go, current state-by-state poll numbers have Obama's likelihood of winning up to 85.1%. Electoral vote of 320 to 218.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ (This is not a personal endorsement, just an observation). |
10-01-2012, 07:07 PM | #3 |
Demiurge
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I would hold judgment until after the debates. I don't think most people that are undecided have started paying attention yet. There is some fluidity left out there.
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10-04-2012, 11:53 AM | #4 |
Demiurge
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10-04-2012, 03:26 PM | #5 |
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10-04-2012, 03:40 PM | #6 | |
I must not tell lies
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Quote:
These two candidates certainly looked like one has been through twenty debates over the past year, while it was the other's first in four years. Still, you would expect some preparation by the incumbent. It will be interesting to see Fact Check.org's final analysis of who more eloquently lied to 314 million people (or its more commonly known heading, "who won the debate"). |
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10-04-2012, 07:37 PM | #7 |
Demiurge
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Obama has never been a good debater. But now that he has no record to run on...
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10-08-2012, 04:55 PM | #8 |
I must not tell lies
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UPDATE
Now with only 4 weeks left, Obama's probability has dipped to 78.4%, from last Monday's 85.1%. The electoral forecast now sits at 308 to 230, down from 320 to 218. Interestingly, last Thursday evening (24 hours after the first debate), Obama's probability had risen to over 86%, but sunk 8 points over the weekend. Apparently Romney's spin on the unemployment numbers and his 47% apology carried more weight than the debate. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ |
10-15-2012, 09:12 PM | #9 |
I must not tell lies
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UPDATE
With 3 weeks left, Obama's probability of winning has dropped to 66.0%, down from 78.4% last week. The current electoral forecast is 289 Obama, 249 Romney. Also, of the 9 swing states that pundits say will decide the election, 5 shifted their outlooks rightward over the past week: Colorado: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup Florida: previously was lean Obama, now is lean Romney New Hampshire: previously was likely Obama, now is lean Obama North Carolina: previously was tossup, now is lean Romney Virginia: previously was lean Obama, now is a tossup The 4 swing states that haven't budged: Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio still lean Obama, while Wisconsin is likely Obama. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ |
10-15-2012, 11:09 PM | #10 |
Demiurge
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this stuff from Nate Silver, from what I heard, leans so far to the left that it is ridiculous.
It is still too early to know what is going to happen, with two debates to go. Certainly the wind is blowing in Romney's favor. |
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